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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 29

New York Giants 3 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(12:48) 9-G.Gano 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +2.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.37 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 29, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened
  • 80% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 39, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP