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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 36

Detroit Lions 26 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 89-B.Wright to LV 31 for 5 yards (39-N.Hobbs).

The Three Options

GO -0.00 EP
What Happened
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +0.98 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 36, worth -1.50 EP
KICK +0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 46, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.63 EP