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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 8

Detroit Lions 26 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(5:03) 36-R.Patterson 26 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +2.12 EP
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.17 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 8, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.45 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model