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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 26

Detroit Lions 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(7:56) 36-R.Patterson 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.74 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +5.01 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +2.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.89 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 36, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT +0.85 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model