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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 92

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Detroit Lions 16

What Actually Happened

(4:14) 6-A.Cole punts 52 yards to DET 40, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 11-K.Raymond to DET 49 for 9 yards (50-J.Bobenmoyer; 87-M.Mayer).

The Three Options

GO -2.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.13 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 92, worth -5.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.83 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 50, worth -2.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model