Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 16 at the 70

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Detroit Lions 16

What Actually Happened

(13:13) 6-A.Cole punts 50 yards to DET 20, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 11-K.Raymond to DET 29 for 9 yards (45-Jak.Johnson, 20-I.Pola-Mao). LV-45-Jak.Johnson was injured during the play. He is Out. PENALTY on LV-19-D.Turner, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at DET 29.

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.63 EP
73% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 70, worth -4.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model