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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 15

Detroit Lions 6 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(8:12) 36-R.Patterson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.57 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 15, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model