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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 71

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(11:31) 6-A.Cole punts 49 yards to DET 22, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.26 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 71, worth -4.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 29, worth -1.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model