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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 15

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(5:25) 8-L.Havrisik 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.45 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 15, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model