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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 12 at the 87

Los Angeles Rams 20 – Dallas Cowboys 43

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 42-E.Evans punts 37 yards to 50, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.89 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 87, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 45, worth -1.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model