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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 67

Dallas Cowboys 43 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(3:55) 5-B.Anger punts 52 yards to LA 15, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 81-A.Trammell.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.19 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 67, worth -3.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.26 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 25, worth -1.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP