Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 92

Dallas Cowboys 43 – Los Angeles Rams 17

(8:29) 5-B.Anger punts 41 yards to DAL 49, Center-44-T.Sieg. 81-A.Trammell to LA 46 for -5 yards (54-S.Williams, 25-N.Wright).

The Three Options

GO -2.90 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.65 EP
60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 92, worth -5.32 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model