Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 71

Los Angeles Rams 17 – Dallas Cowboys 43

What Actually Happened

(10:55) 42-E.Evans punts 58 yards to DAL 13, Center-47-A.Ward. 9-K.Turpin for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on DAL-25-N.Wright, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at DAL 13.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
57% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 71, worth -3.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model