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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 67

Los Angeles Rams 17 – Dallas Cowboys 36

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 11-B.Rypien pass short right to 17-P.Nacua to LA 46 for 13 yards (97-O.Odighizuwa).

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.66 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 67, worth -3.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 25, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model