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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 9

Dallas Cowboys 33 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(1:36) 17-B.Aubrey 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.82 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 9, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP