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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 14 at the 41

Houston Texans 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:46) 11-C.Johnston punts 33 yards to CAR 8, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-I.Smith-Marsette.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.09 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.43 EP
KICK -0.89 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model