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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 40

Houston Texans 13 – Carolina Panthers 12

What Actually Happened

(6:23) 11-C.Johnston punts 31 yards to CAR 9, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-I.Smith-Marsette.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.81 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.78 EP
KICK -0.24 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP