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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 61

Houston Texans 13 – Carolina Panthers 12

What Actually Happened

(10:46) 11-C.Johnston punts 44 yards to CAR 17, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-I.Smith-Marsette to CAR 21 for 4 yards (37-D.Ross).

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.10 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP