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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 1

Houston Texans 7 – Carolina Panthers 12

What Actually Happened

(:42) 78-L.Tunsil reported in as eligible. 7-C.Stroud up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.80 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.31 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model