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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 14 at the 94

Carolina Panthers 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:59) 10-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to HOU 46, Center-44-J.Jansen. 3-N.Dell to CAR 49 for 5 yards (41-M.Farley).

The Three Options

GO -3.36 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.13 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 94, worth -5.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -2.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 52, worth -2.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model