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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 71

Houston Texans 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:47) 11-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to CAR 19, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-I.Smith-Marsette. PENALTY on CAR-52-D.Johnson, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at CAR 19.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.08 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.99 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP