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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 30

Baltimore Ravens 21 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(9:32) 9-J.Tucker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.17 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +1.04 EP
What Happened
  • 81% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 40, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP