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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 54

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(1:58) 11-J.Stout punts 44 yards to ARI 10, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 4-R.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.70 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 54, worth -2.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 16, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP