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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 53

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(7:27) 11-J.Stout punts 45 yards to ARI 8, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 4-R.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.93 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 53, worth -3.03 EP
KICK -1.50 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 15, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model