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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 17 at the 72

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(12:43) 11-J.Stout punts 59 yards to ARI 13, Center-69-T.Ott. 4-R.Moore pushed ob at ARI 24 for 11 yards (45-D.Houston-Carson).

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.31 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 72, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 30, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model