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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 50

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(4:12) 11-J.Stout punts 40 yards to ARI 10, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 4-R.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.06 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 50, worth -2.78 EP
KICK -1.12 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model