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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 83

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(5:39) 12-B.Gillikin punts 50 yards to BAL 33, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 47 for 14 yards (26-B.Price).

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.67 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 83, worth -4.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.92 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 41, worth -1.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP