Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 62

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Arizona Cardinals 7

(7:40) 11-J.Stout punts 54 yards to ARI 8, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.41 EP
60% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 62, worth -3.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model