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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 56

Tennessee Titans 0 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(5:52) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 41 yards to ATL 15, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.84 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 56, worth -2.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 17, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP