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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 80

Atlanta Falcons 16 – Tennessee Titans 21

What Actually Happened

(12:00) 13-B.Pinion punts 50 yards to TEN 30, Center-49-L.McCullough. 33-E.Garror pushed ob at TEN 39 for 9 yards (87-J.FitzPatrick). PENALTY on TEN-23-T.Avery, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 30.

The Three Options

GO -2.45 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.29 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 80, worth -4.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 37, worth -2.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model