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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 72

Tennessee Titans 21 – Atlanta Falcons 16

What Actually Happened

(12:23) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 72 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.70 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 72, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 30, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model