4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 12 at the 51

Tennessee Titans 14 – Atlanta Falcons 6

What Actually Happened

(7:16) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.44 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 51, worth -2.70 EP
KICK -1.36 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model