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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 40

Tennessee Titans 14 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(:35) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 32 yards to ATL 8, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-11-C.Moore.

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +2.93 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 40, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.56 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.86 EP