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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 18 at the 96

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(1:13) 13-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to 50, Center-49-L.McCullough. 33-E.Garror to ATL 43 for 7 yards (51-D.Malone).

The Three Options

GO -4.24 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.17 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 96, worth -6.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

PUNT -2.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 53, worth -2.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model