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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 67

Tennessee Titans 14 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(1:44) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 55 yards to ATL 12, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.16 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 67, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 25, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model