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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 11 at the 65

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(3:27) 13-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to TEN 13, Center-49-L.McCullough. 33-E.Garror to TEN 22 for 9 yards (87-J.FitzPatrick).

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.27 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 65, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 23, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model