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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 17 at the 35

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 9-C.Boswell 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.61 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 35, worth -1.92 EP
KICK +0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 45, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model