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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 47

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(7:37) 6-P.Harvin punts 41 yards to LA 6, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-42-J.Pierre.

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.19 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 47, worth -2.92 EP
KICK -1.04 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -3.05 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 13, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model