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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 39

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(2:24) 8-K.Pickett left guard to LA 38 for 1 yard (92-J.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +1.09 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 39, worth -2.11 EP
KICK -0.17 EP
  • 63% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.17 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 48, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT -1.13 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model