Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 57

Los Angeles Rams 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 24

(5:39) 42-E.Evans punts 45 yards to PIT 12, Center-47-A.Ward. 19-C.Austin to PIT 14 for 2 yards (26-D.Shelley, 47-A.Ward).

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.36 EP
66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model