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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 20 at the 57

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:51) 42-E.Evans punts 42 yards to PIT 15, Center-47-A.Ward. 19-C.Austin ran ob at PIT 21 for 6 yards (56-C.Rozeboom).

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.85 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model