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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 80

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(10:14) 6-P.Harvin punts 41 yards to LA 39, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.41 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 80, worth -4.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 37, worth -2.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model