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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 63

Philadelphia Eagles 24 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(8:10) (No Huddle) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to PHI 39 for 2 yards (2-B.Chubb).

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.74 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 63, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model