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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 18 at the 50

Miami Dolphins 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(10:20) 16-J.Bailey punts 45 yards to PHI 5, Center-44-B.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.89 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 50, worth -2.86 EP
KICK -1.83 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model