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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 37

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(13:00) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to MIA 35 for 2 yards (2-B.Chubb; 55-J.Baker).

The Three Options

GO +2.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.73 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 37, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.13 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 46, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model