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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 16 at the 81

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 31

What Actually Happened

(2:40) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 5-J.Palmer to LAC 38 for 19 yards (38-L.Sneed).

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.30 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 81, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 38, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.95 EP