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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 53

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 24

What Actually Happened

(11:59) 16-J.Scott punts 45 yards to KC 8, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 12-M.Hardman.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.80 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 53, worth -2.86 EP
KICK -1.77 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 15, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model