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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 51

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(2:57) 16-J.Scott punts 47 yards to KC 4, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-36-J.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.73 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 51, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -1.55 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP