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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 5

New Orleans Saints 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(1:29) 19-B.Grupe 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

The Three Options

GO +2.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.24 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 5, worth +0.45 EP
KICK +2.22 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP