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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 55

New Orleans Saints 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(3:44) 39-L.Hedley punts 40 yards to JAX 15, Center-49-Z.Wood. 29-T.Campbell MUFFS catch, touched at JAX 19, RECOVERED by NO-28-L.Johnson at JAX 17. JAX-39-J.Agnew was injured during the play. His return is Probable.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.02 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 55, worth -2.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 16, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model